The global crawl and taking up the challenge of prediction


Michael Roberts Blog

Readers of this blog will know that from its very beginning over five years ago, I have argued, ad nauseam, that after the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, the world capitalist economy entered what I have called a long depression, see
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2013/02/10/why-is-there-a-long-depression/.

What I meant by this was that the trajectory of the world real GDP growth and investment took what I described as a square-root shape. A relatively high trend growth rate was interrupted by a sharp drop, then a sharpish recovery before growth resumed but this time at a much lower level than before.

Schematically, it would look like this – and in reality.

Depressions

This view, that capitalism is in a Long Depression, will be the main message of my upcoming book to be published (I hope) this summer.

However, there are many voices who do not agree that world capitalism is in a downward…

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