Global trade doldrums

Michael Roberts Blog

Another indicator of the weak recovery since the end of the Great Recession is the growth of world trade. This is well down on the pre-crisis rate of growth. World trade is now growing at about 2.5% a year compared well over double that before the crisis.

World trade growth

And here is the staggering thing. For the last six months global trade growth has been below world growth in industrial output – the longest period that has happened except during the Great Recession itself.  In the graph below, the red line below shows the rate of growth in world trade and the blue line shows the growth in global industrial output.  Both are lower on average than before the Great Recession (black lines).  But the red line is now below the blue.
World trade and IP

And that’s bad news, because it means that national capitalist economies cannot expect to escape from weak domestic expansion by…

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